The demographic vulnerabilities map of the Nordic-Baltic region is a summary of ten demographic components on municipal level in all countries; except Lithuania where the NUTS3 regions were used; a decision based partly on data availability but also due to the very small size of the Lithuanian municipalities which would have made them difficult to distinguish in the pan Nordic-Baltic map.
For each component, there is a threshold (i.e., a limit) of vulnerability. The thresholds have been chosen to identify whether or not the component can be considered at risk. E.g., if the component 'net migration' (average of 5 years) is negative – below 0% – it is considered a vulnerability. Thus, more vulnerabilities within a municipality indicates a higher level of risk.
The thresholds for each of the chosen age structure components have been calculated based on the Nordic-Baltic average values and the potential replacement. For the other components, the threshold values have been set to a balanced situation. For example, a female population rate below 100 (a low value) will result in a distorted gender structure which reduces the natural reproduction rate.
Based on the identification of risk for each of the components, the level of vulnerability has been calculated simply by adding the number of at-risk components together. Again it is important to note that the total number of indicators is not necessarily worse than a lower number but rather it highlights the level of complexity when seeking to understand the full demographic situation in a specific municipality.
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