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Increasing importance of Nordic migration

During the last five years the Nordic population grew modestly by approximately 0.67% per annum or by a total of 842 000 persons. This was more than the European Union average, with a 0.40% growth rate or an increase of 9.9 million persons. At the national level, Denmark, Finland and Sweden each saw a total population increase around average EU rates. Norway had a higher annual population increase, above 1%. From a European perspective, Iceland had the most dramatic development with a population increase over 2% per annum in 2005-2008. However, as a result of economic changes the total population decreased by approximately 0.50% between 2009 and 2010.

The total population change is a combination the difference between births and deaths and migration. Twenty years ago the impact of these components to population development in Norden was more or less the same. Today the natural population development impacts on approximately 1/3 of total population change. Therefore the overall impact of migration on Nordic population size and structure is considerable and increasing.

The Nordic population has over time concentrated increasingly in the major city regions and regional centres. Over the last ten years the Nordic capital commuter catchments areas (excluding Copenhagen) experienced an annual average population increase of 1.0% or more. The population increase was even higher in several Nordic second-tier metropolises with especially high migration rates, particularly Stavanger/Sandnes (NO), Malmö/Lund (SE), Reykjanes Peninsula (IS), Tampere (FI) and some regional centres like Oulu (FI) and Vejle (DK). At the same time municipalities outside the city areas have experienced significant population losses in recent decades, mainly in the Danish, Finnish and Swedish countryside.

Measured at the municipal level, this migration-related concentration pattern has in any case changed to some extent in recent years. The question is mainly about the capital and metropolitan growth regions that has expanded with longer commuting distances especially along the main transport corridors but also on a lesser scale in relation to few local centres in the peripheral regions that have managed to move from out- to in-migration municipalities. This local development is mainly a result of the effects of the tourism industry. In Iceland and Norway some small coastal communities also saw positive net migration due to various fishing and aquaculture activities.

There are significant differences in terms of the intensity of migration and the shares of domestic and international migration flows in the Nordic Countries. Domestic migration patterns follow the overall migration picture, but with an even higher concentration to major city regions. In many rural municipalities, especially in Norway and Sweden, negative domestic migration is compensated by extensive international migration.

Mobile year 2009

Over 10% of the Nordic population changed its place of residence in 2009. Even if most of these people simply moved to nearby municipalities or to other regions in the same country, 1.6% of the Nordic population, or slightly more than 400 000 persons, nevertheless changed their country of residence. In terms of net migration, the Nordic population increased in total by approximately 130 000 persons due to immigration to the Nordic Countries in 2009.

In relation to total population people in Finland and Iceland were most mobile. Total mobility was highest in city regions with universities and in some tourism-oriented rural municipalities.

When dividing migration flows after direction, domestic migration flows are highest in the capital regions of Copenhagen, Stockholm and Uusimaa (Helsinki), and in the Finnish regions of Pirkanmaa and Pohjois-Pohjanmaa. International migration flows are most intense in the capital regions of Oslo, Copenhagen-Malmö and Stockholm, Norwegian Vestlandet, Åland and Iceland. In Denmark, Norway and Sweden the overall level and share of international migration was much higher than in Finland.

International migration

When looking at the direction of international migration on average 25% of all international migration in Norden occurs within the Nordic countries. On the international level total migration flows are highest to and from Denmark and Sweden, but compared to other international migration flows, people in Sweden move mostly to/from other Nordic Countries, whereas the relative share of Nordic migrants is highest in Iceland. Some interesting geographical and historical patterns are however visible.

Migration flows between Denmark, Norway and Sweden are significant in every direction. The main Nordic flows in Iceland are with Denmark and Norway. In Finland the flows to and from Sweden are the only significant Nordic flows. International migration in the Faroe Islands and Greenland is mostly to/from Denmark.

Something over 40% of all Nordic migration is to and from other European countries. The main (non-Nordic) European origin and destination countries are the Baltic States and Poland. Those countries have especially high rates to and from Iceland and Norway. In Finland, the share of Russian migration is also significant. The Nordic share of extra-European migration is around one third, immigration from Asian countries accounting for a significant share of this. At the national level Sweden has the highest extra-European migration rates.

The share of foreign population has been increasing in all of the Nordic Countries; it is interesting however to highlight that 23% of immigrants are actually nationals of the immigration country.
A significant number of these persons are labour migrants and their families who have lived for a limited time abroad. On the other hand 48% of emigrants are nationals. In the Faroe Islands and Greenland, the share of national immigrants and emigrants varies between 85 and 93%. These high figures can be explained by temporary emigration due to studies and other short term activities. Also in Iceland the role of Icelandic emigrants and immigrants is significant.

Johanna Roto

GIS/Cartography Coordinator