- You argue that energy geopolitics might have more influence on territorial developments than national state policies. Can you exemplify this?
– Take the state of Brandenburg in Germany. The situation is now that most fields are not locally owned any longer, but rather they are properties of large enterprises. Thus decisions over what should be cultivated, and in the final instance what the landscape should look like, rest in the hands of very few people. We can easily foresee great changes where it is no longer food but bio-fuels which are grown, and all decided far away from the influence of local inhabitants.
– Another point is the EU-jargon of cohesion. Here you say that there is a clear contradiction between the Lisbon and the Gothenburg agendas?
– My point is that Lisbon emphasises the competitive and centralisation forces of Europe while Gothenburg underlines sustainability and decentralisation. In real politics, however, the later has very little influence. It is like the decoration on a cake, it might make people think that it is nice and tasty, but in reality it does not say anything about what is under the surface.
– The trickle-down effects may not work, you argue?
– All European countries have gradually become richer and differences are also diminishing between, for example, Rumania and Bulgaria on one hand and The Netherlands and Sweden on the other. At the same the differences between the richest and the poorest parts of the populations in any country are growing. Therefore, seen from such a perspective the tendencies are not 'trickle-down', it might in fact, be more appropriate to talk about 'trickle-up'.
– An important part of your analysis is the phenomena of the periphery. You find such situations inside cities as well as in their vicinities and far away into the woods or up in the mountains. Having just visited parts of the Middle-East I see clear similarities to Israel-Palestine, the difference being that here the strongest part of the population have also built high walls to keep the others out?
– I guess you have a point there, if you travel 30 minutes from the centre of Paris to the suburbs you find the same stress and poverty as you find in the Palestinian refugee camps just a few kilometres from Jerusalem. And of course, also in Madrid, Rome, Naples and London and other places you also find situations like these. One common feature is also that of access to transport which remains an important tool used to control people who have to live in these miserable places.
– Finally, of the five scenarios you outline for the future of Europe, which one do you think is the most likely?
– Well, I guess it is a combination of business and usual and what I call 'Slowpark' Europe.
By Odd Iglebaek